MetaGoMRI Gulf Integrated Model

Scenario: a spill of magnitude similar to DWH occurs in the Gulf. Challenge: what combination of decisions creates the best outcome? What assumptions are most sensitive? Most importantly, how can we make this real?
Documentation Physics view Ecosystem view Health view Socio-Economics view Powered by Vensim
  Key: Decisions, Assumptions

Dispersant Fraction
Dispersant applied as a fraction of crude spilled, (dispersant mass)/(crude mass)
0

Dispersant Relative Toxicity
Multiplier for dispersant toxicity relative to crude
10

Dispersant Effect on Surfacing
Multiplier for dispersant effect on rate of crude surfacing
1

Subsurface Degradation Rate
Fractional rate of degradation of oil in the water column
0.1

Shore Cleanup Threshold
Threshold for initiating shore cleanup (ktons oil onshore)
10

Surface Cleanup Threshold
Threshold for initiating skimming (ktons oil on surface)
10

Harvest Tox sensitivity
Sensitivity of seafood industry closures to toxin levels
1

Beach Closure Sensitivity
Sensitivity of coastal recreation and tourism closures to oil onshore
1

Relative Behavioral Exposure
Riskiness of coastal activity, relative to baseline
1

Active Restoration Intensity
Effort devoted to habitat restoration (fraction of degradation restored per year)
0

Mental Health Recovery Rate
Rate of recovery from mental health degradation (fraction/year)
0.5

Weight to Economic Pressure
Sensitivity of mental health to economic pressures
0.5

Weight to Health Pressure
Sensitivity of mental health to physical health challenges
1

Ref Mental Health Chronic Risk
Incidence of physical health problems induced by mental health degradation
0.01

Productivity Sensitivity to Health
Multiplier for sensitivity of economic productivity to health
0.4

Productivity Sensitivity to Human Capital
Sensitivity of economic productivity to human capital
0.4

Local Cleanup Share
Share of cleanup expenses that accrue to the local economy as output (fraction)
0.2

Direct Payment Rate
Direct payments to affected coastal residents and businesses (B$/year)
0

Payment Duration
Duration of direct payments into the local economy (years)
5

Score

The score is a weighted average of ecosystem health (biomass), human health, and economic activity, subject to a total cleanup budget of $50 billion over 10 years.

Physics

Ecosystem

Health

Socioeconomics