! Open model
SPECIAL>LOADMODEL|BALCS for analysis A.mdl
SPECIAL>NOINTERACTION

! base policy with best guess parameters (no market uncertainty; known competitor strategy)
SIMULATE>RUNNAME|BaseDeterm
SIMULATE>READCIN|base.cin
! load best-guess parameters from part 1 calibration
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|CalLongWtPrior.out
MENU>RUN|o
MENU>VDF2TAB|!|!

! optimal policy with best guess parameters (no market uncertainty; known competitor strategy)
SIMULATE>RUNNAME|BestGuess
SIMULATE>READCIN|base.cin
! load best-guess parameters from part 1 calibration
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|CalLongWtPrior.out
SIMULATE>PAYOFF|PVprofit1.vpd
SIMULATE>OPTPARM|Firm1strategy.voc
MENU>RUN_OPTIMIZE|o
MENU>VDF2TAB|!|!

! test resulting strategy against aggressive competitor
SIMULATE>RUNNAME|BestVsF2aggr
SIMULATE>READCIN|base.cin
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|CalLongWtPrior.out
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|BestGuess.out
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|Firm2aggressive.cin
MENU>RUN|o
MENU>VDF2TAB|!|!

! test resulting strategy against uncertainty
SIMULATE>RUNNAME|BestVsUncert
SIMULATE>READCIN|base.cin
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|CalLongWtPrior.out
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|BestGuess.out
SIMULATE>SENSITIVITY|uncertain.vsc
SIMULATE>SENSSAVELIST|keyvars.lst
MENU>RUN_SENSITIVITY|o
MENU>VDF2TAB|!|!

! Now policy analysis w/uncertainty

! base run with distribution around best guess
SIMULATE>RUNNAME|BaseUncert
SIMULATE>READCIN|base.cin
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|CalLongWtPrior.out
SIMULATE>SENSITIVITY|uncertain.vsc
SIMULATE>SENSSAVELIST|keyvars.lst
MENU>RUN_SENSITIVITY|o
MENU>VDF2TAB|!|!

! be more aggressive
SIMULATE>RUNNAME|F1aggressive
SIMULATE>READCIN|base.cin
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|CalLongWtPrior.out
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|Firm1aggressive.cin
SIMULATE>SENSITIVITY|uncertain.vsc
SIMULATE>SENSSAVELIST|keyvars.lst
MENU>RUN_SENSITIVITY|o
MENU>VDF2TAB|!|!

! stochastic optimization to find optimal policy w/uncert
SIMULATE>RUNNAME|Robust
SIMULATE>READCIN|base.cin
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|CalLongWtPrior.out
! start from deterministic best guess
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|BestGuess.out
SIMULATE>SENSITIVITY|uncertain.vsc
SIMULATE>SENSSAVELIST|keyvars.lst
SIMULATE>PAYOFF|PVprofit1.vpd
SIMULATE>OPTPARM|Firm1strategy+uncertain.voc
MENU>RUN_OPTIMIZE|o
MENU>VDF2TAB|!|!

! test resulting strategy against aggressive competitor (deterministic)
SIMULATE>RUNNAME|RobustVsF2aggr
SIMULATE>READCIN|base.cin
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|CalLongWtPrior.out
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|Robust.out
SIMULATE>ADDCIN|Firm2aggressive.cin
MENU>RUN|o
MENU>VDF2TAB|!|!